Week Five QB Rookie review

Hello DA fantasy fans,

As we head into week five, it’s a good time to assess this year’s rookies.

Yes, it’s early, but dynasty auction fantasy is all about anticipating moves ahead of time to maximize your lineups and point potential. We’ll start with QB’s this week and move to WR’s and RB’s after that.  Come back often as I will be blogging each week where I will point out DA fantasy nuggets to help you manage your dynasty auction rosters this year and get the slight edges you need to win.

Read on, won’t you?

We are constantly re-assessing our lineups and determining a rookie’s upside potential is critical to establishing a dominant dynasty auction team and putting together a lineup that is obviously better than the current one New England Patriots GM, Eliot Wolf has assembled.

Two of the top three rookie QB’s in this year’s draft are showing immediate returns – and the third, gets his opportunity to shine this week.

Number 1 overall, Caleb Williams started off slower than #2 overall, Jayden Daniels.

Williams’ overall PFF pass grade of 54.4 is, how do we say it? It’s not good, Bob. So he is a wait and see at the moment, but he has a high ceiling. He has thrown for over 300 yards twice in the last three weeks. Sure, sure, against terrible secondaries like Indy (363-2) and Car (304-2), but he has the skills to score against the poor defenses in the league – and he is only five games into his career. Good skill positions (DJ Moore, Keenan, D’Andre) around him and a top ten (#9) pass blocking OL, set him up well not just for this year but the next few. You likely have better options, as Williams is risky unless the matchup is good, but he has a great schedule with only tough defenses in NE and MIN in weeks 10, 12 and 15, respectively. If you can pry his so-so fantasy start into a trade for him, take advantage now, I don’t think his talent will be hidden for much longer.

WAS QB Jayden Daniels (#2 overall, QB2) has already proven himself and likely cost a pretty penny at auction this year. He was worth it. He’s currently sitting in the top five QB’s depending on your scoring system and is most certainly making Chicago GM Ryan Poles wonder is he chose… poorly. Incredibly efficient at a 77% completion rate, including two games completing over 86% of his passes.  Daniels also helps himself in the rushing game – from a fantasy perspective a dual option QB – Lamar, Jalen, Kyler-type is the best way to maximize points – the downside is the inherent injury risk faced by rushing QB’s. Daniels has 300 yards rushing second only to Lamar (363 RuYds).  

He too, has talent at skill positions (Da Commish has been a huge fan of Terry McLauren, well, since forever and the burgeoning Brian Robinson / Austin Ekeler backfield keeps defensive fronts honest). Add in a solid OL (fifth in Pass blocking) and you see long term success for this guy if Adam Peters (WAS GM) builds well under the new ownership team.

The formula for successful QBs in the NFL is already proven – start with talent and a levelheaded QB, add in talent at skill positions around him and give him time to throw. That sets any QB up for success. But add in a coaching system that fits the QB style and now the same QB is set up for greatness.

Any other rookie QB’s set up well? In short, umm, no.

Drake Maye - #3, QB3, is about to start, but his situation is different from Jayden and Caleb’s in that he has none of the success factors listed above. Demario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk (more on him in next week’s rookie WR edition) are just not quality wideouts right now. Polk is off to a good rookie start and appears to have the talent, but the OL is a disaster (30th out of 32 teams) and there is only so much pressure Rhamondre Stevenson can take off the rookie QB, even in a run first offense.

Michael Penix – #8 overall, QB4, is going to sit for a while behind franchise QB Kirk Cousins, whose four–year, $180 million deal in March kind of locked him into that role before Penix was drafted. Overall, he has a high likelihood of success, but he is going to need to sit on your bench for a while and that may not be the best roster management decision for you. If you have a deep bench, he’s a great stash and Cousins is coming off a bad Achilles injury.

JJ McCarthy, #10, QB5, is on IR due to a torn meniscus that required surgery and is missing his rookie season, an inauspicious start to say the least. Assuming he comes back with full mobility, he steps into a very good situation if you like his talent. I am not yet sold on his talent versus a Penix or a Drake Maye. But if you have bench space, he can be a low-end flyer for a cheap salary.

Bo Nix, #12, QB6, is starting similarly to Caleb Williams. They are each at 62-63% efficiency, and Caleb has about two hundred more yards and 2 more TD’s than Nix. Denver has a top five pass blocking OL but both the scheme and the talent around him are lacking. Denver runs an Air Coryell offense where you take vertical shots to open up the power running game. They have the backs (Javonte Williams, power rush, and Jaleel McLaughlin, pass catching) but Courtland Sutton is not the deep threat they need to create space underneath. Perhaps fellow rookie Troy Franklin matures to take this role, but that has yet to be determined at this moment.

Check in to the DafffyBlog next week when we will review rookie wideouts.

Thanks for reading and while here, please consider taking our survey.

Da Commish